Posted by: williamu | July 7, 2009

THE economic indicator for recruiters

Mark Sullivan of Time Warner Cable asked a question last Thursday on Twitter:

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Everyone would like this recession to be done and over.  Every month there are new surveys, charts, and numbers.  What should we track?  The percentage of unemployment or how many jobs are being created or saved?  We know things aren’t good.  Hold your breath and take a look at the current job loss number put in a historical context below.

Jobs decline from peak

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists the average work hours per week in the private sector, manufacturing and overtime since 1994.  Overtime is an important indicator.  When it goes up, a company’s existing staff can only sustain overtime hours for short periods of time before adding additional headcount or adding temps.  A drop in overtime would indicate less production is needed, more workers are being furloughed and fewer temps are needed.  With the official start of this recession as December 2007, each category has lost ground: 0.7, 1.8 and 1.2 respectively.  Here is the compiled raw data for overtime.

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What do you think?  If anyone knows of studies in this area, I’d love to hear from you.

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